Speculation Monthly: SF Bay Area Real Estate Edition
Take just one house in our neighborhood. It sold for $630,000 in 2008. Someone bought it, fixed it up and real estate sites estimate its value at $1.3 million.
"Proof!" Cry the density bros and paid agitators. "Proof we need to remove regulations that keep us from razing family homes, so we can build non-rent controlled, dense housing everywhere, so we can cool the climate!"
Real estate sites estimate this house in our neighborhood can sell for $1.3 million, but can it? This writer knows of a five-bedroom three-bath house in this neighborhood overlooking a park, with a two-car garage that went for just over $1 million. So can this smaller house get 1.3 million? Con: this two-bedroom house stands on a street corner, which makes it more prone to car noise than other houses not on street corners. Pro: it does have attractive contemporary landscaping in the front. Pro: As of today it's not for sale, but could probably collect an impressive sum in monthly rent:
Let's see, if it goes up in value the owner can probably attract more income in rent. The owner doesn't need to sell, the owner can hold out until it goes up more in value, or down in value, or the owner can just collect rent as income and live happily in Costa Rica.
Here's what Trulia says about this same home:
We have vacancies in the form of office space and street-level shop space all over this city. Story after story sprinkles our headlines of someone going out of business because the landlord "nearly doubled" the rent, and the business owner was unable to re-negotiate their lease. Pedestrians walk by store space that stays vacant for months and years as the property owner holds out for a small business owner willing to pay the higher rent. Naturally, high-end shops with high price point goods are the only ones willing to pay higher rents. Income divide self-widens.
So some residents remain suspicious at this housing emergency -- sure, we're in an emergency -- but some remain suspicious that the response to this emergency is to build more office space with no town square in a region that badly needs one, and only some housing attached.
4/14/2018: Opendoor says they're not a house "flipping" company. The buy houses and sell them, and get lots of venture capital to do so. sfchronicle.com
sfchronicle.com
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Further Reading:
Speculation Monthly, CryptoCoin Edition: offlinereport.blogspot.com
City Comforts, How to Build an Urban Village citycomforts.com
The three rules: build to the sidewalk; make the building "permeable" (no blank walls), prohibit parking lots in front of the building. citycomforts.com sample chapter (pdf)
Add housing by allowing one triplex per block: seattletimes.com
Foreclosure hangover: how the 2008 crisis created a new class of renter: mercurynews.com
This work by AJ Fish is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
"Proof!" Cry the density bros and paid agitators. "Proof we need to remove regulations that keep us from razing family homes, so we can build non-rent controlled, dense housing everywhere, so we can cool the climate!"
Real estate sites estimate this house in our neighborhood can sell for $1.3 million, but can it? This writer knows of a five-bedroom three-bath house in this neighborhood overlooking a park, with a two-car garage that went for just over $1 million. So can this smaller house get 1.3 million? Con: this two-bedroom house stands on a street corner, which makes it more prone to car noise than other houses not on street corners. Pro: it does have attractive contemporary landscaping in the front. Pro: As of today it's not for sale, but could probably collect an impressive sum in monthly rent:
XXXX XX Ave, San Francisco, CA is a single family home that contains 1,335 sq ft and was built in 1944. It contains 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. This home last sold for $630,000 in February 2008.
The Zestimate for this house is $1,185,711, which has increased by $41,235 in the last 30 days. The Rent Zestimate for this home is $3,800/mo. The property tax in 2017 was $9,042. The tax assessment in 2017 was $744,912, an increase of 2.0% over the previous year.
Let's see, if it goes up in value the owner can probably attract more income in rent. The owner doesn't need to sell, the owner can hold out until it goes up more in value, or down in value, or the owner can just collect rent as income and live happily in Costa Rica.
Here's what Trulia says about this same home:
Date: 05/09/2008 Price: $650,000 Event: Posting removed Date: 03/05/2008 Price: $650,000 Event: Listed for sale Date: 02/21/2008 Price: $630,000 Event: Sold Date: 06/02/2005 Price: $741,000 Event: Sold
We have vacancies in the form of office space and street-level shop space all over this city. Story after story sprinkles our headlines of someone going out of business because the landlord "nearly doubled" the rent, and the business owner was unable to re-negotiate their lease. Pedestrians walk by store space that stays vacant for months and years as the property owner holds out for a small business owner willing to pay the higher rent. Naturally, high-end shops with high price point goods are the only ones willing to pay higher rents. Income divide self-widens.
So some residents remain suspicious at this housing emergency -- sure, we're in an emergency -- but some remain suspicious that the response to this emergency is to build more office space with no town square in a region that badly needs one, and only some housing attached.
4/14/2018: Opendoor says they're not a house "flipping" company. The buy houses and sell them, and get lots of venture capital to do so. sfchronicle.com
sfchronicle.com
--------------
Further Reading:
Speculation Monthly, CryptoCoin Edition: offlinereport.blogspot.com
City Comforts, How to Build an Urban Village citycomforts.com
The three rules: build to the sidewalk; make the building "permeable" (no blank walls), prohibit parking lots in front of the building. citycomforts.com sample chapter (pdf)
Add housing by allowing one triplex per block: seattletimes.com
Foreclosure hangover: how the 2008 crisis created a new class of renter: mercurynews.com
This work by AJ Fish is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
